In 2014, the global aluminum market may go into a deficit

“The global aluminum market will remain in short supply for the first time in eight years,” analysts and investment banks say. The main reason for this is the growing demand for metal from the automotive industry and a sharp decline in production capacity.

According to forecasts made by Sumitomo Corp. in 2013, aluminum was in surplus in the amount of 580 thousand tons, in 2014 world consumption exceeds supply by 61 thousand tons, therefore, according to preliminary data in 2015, the deficit may reach 493 thousand tons.

As already reported on our website , the Goldman Sachs company at the end of July published information about the metal deficit in the amount of 579 thousand tons and this by the end of 2014 of the year. The reason is that by that time about 50 factories will be shut down. Already, two companies have closed their factories in Australia. These are Alcoa Inc. (Point Henry plant) and Norsk Hydro ASA (Kurri Kurri plant). In addition to the closure of one of the factories, Alcoa Inc. also reported a decrease in production volumes at two Brazilian factories.

However, Citigroup Inc. predicts that in 2016 aluminum will still be in surplus. Morgan Stanley strongly states that this will continue in 2017. In recent years, the demand for aluminum has changed from positive to negative values. There is no need to rely on drawing conclusions and asserting that the situation will remain stable for a while. After all, the more factories stop, the more likely that this metal on the market will become even less.