Oil market in June and trends in 2015

The independent agency EIA predicts that Brent crude oil prices will average $ 60 a barrel in 2015 and $ 67 a barrel in 2016. The EIA is part of the US federal statistics system. The forecast states that OPEC oil production will continue to rise, contributing to a prolonged global market glut. Oil markets are also concerned about the speed at which Iran could increase oil exports if Western sanctions are lifted entirely.

Weaker US refined fuel markets and the potentially negative impact from Greece's debt crisis will continue to weigh on oil prices. Greece, as expected, failed to repay 1.6 billion euros to the IMF on June 30 this year, the largest missed payment in the history of the Fund. By default, Greece has pushed the dollar higher against the euro, and a strong dollar is weighing on oil prices as dollar-denominated oil import prices rise for countries using different currencies.

The impact of the oil crisis on American producers is brutal. Rig numbers in the US are down 60 percent since November last year, and 22 companies with $ 33 billion in assets have filed for bankruptcy protection with insolvency warnings or deferred bond interest payments. The steady decline in oil rigs is one of the key developments in the United States. Although the growth in oil production has been impressive, the International Energy Agency expects US oil production to remain at that level, at least if prices remain around $ 60 a barrel.

Iraqi oil production reportedly rose to a record level in June and reached 32.1 million barrels per day against the target of 30 million barrels per day. In addition, if Iran is allowed to export more oil to a congested market, it will also lower prices. Experts believe the world will continue to be oversaturated with oil, and there are no clear signs that this trend will change in the near future.