The future of coal

Coal may have dropped out of sight in China, North America and Europe, but India and other Asian countries will ensure that the dirtiest fossil fuels continue to supply more than a quarter of the world's energy.

Rapid economic development in parts of Asia will rely on coal-fired power plants, the International Energy Agency said in its 2017 coal market report. Following government pollution control that has led to one of China's largest annual recessions, demand will see little change until 2022 to cement its position as the largest market.

“As coal use continues to decline in many parts of the world, this decline is offset by continued growth in India, Southeast Asia, and a number of other countries where the role of coal today is negligible but growing,” the IEA said. ... “Virtually all of the growth in coal consumption will come from electricity generation.”

Global consumption is set to grow 0.5 percent annually through 2022, the IEA said, similar to last year's forecast, that fuel demand "will stall and be flat." The rate in Europe is up about 40 percent this year, and "stays here" as China's national policies continue to stimulate the global market.

The five fastest growing countries will be Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines, which already have many coal-fired power plants under construction, according to the report. In absolute terms, India will host the package with an increase of 135 million tons over a five-year period, or about 2.5 percent of global demand last year.

In Europe, the outlook for coal is "bleak," the agency said. Poland and Germany remain the largest fuel consumers in the European Union, accounting for more than half of the block's demand. But while that demand will remain stable in Poland until 2022, it is projected to decline in Germany even when the country stops its nuclear power plants. Hard coal production in Europe outside Poland will decline to "negligible" levels by 2022.

Coal demand is likely to continue to decline in the US as well. While President Donald Trump's mining policy has helped boost demand this year, it will start to decline again at a rate of about 0.9 percent annually from 2018 to 2022.

The agency expects the total share of coal in the global energy balance to decline from 27% in 2016 to 26% in 2022.