Will the hryvnia collapse on Monday?

Trying to extinguish the pre -election, exciting demand for the dollar, the Ukrainian National Bank for the first time in three months began to actively sell American currency. The operation to hold the course cost the regulator about 3% of the currency reserves. But the hryvnia still sank to 8.18.

The uncertainty of expectations after the elected world order pushed the Ukrainians long before the announcement of the results of the parliamentary elections to stock up on foreign currency. That is how today experts explain the increased interest of the population of Ukraine in the dollars that began in September and continued in October.

True, in September, the National Bank himself was more to blame, which issued refinancing to commercial banks, which immediately became actively buying up invaluity. But in October, according to analysts, the situation of increased demand began to warm up speculators who swayed the currency exchange rate to 8.18 - 8.19 hryvnia per dollar.

The National Bank has all the necessary tools for entering the market and impact on the course: either administratively or economic methods, said Igor Prasolov, chairman of the board of directors of the National Bank of Ukraine, adding that there are no objective grounds for gryvna devaluation.

At the same time, official data speaks about the purchase of $ 1.84 billion in September and selling less than $ 332 million back.

The stability of the Ukrainian currency is very low, and it is under pressure, which can lead to a drop in the course by 10% by the end of the year, says Charles Seville, director of the analytical group of the Fitch rating agency.

However, already in mid -October, the demand for dollars by the population grew to 15%, and besides, people began to transfer hryvnia deposits into foreign exchange. From October 15, speculators were connected to the loosening of the currency course, the result of which was the closure of the access of many banks to the foreign exchange market.

Forecasts regarding the upcoming course vary from 8.2 to 10 - 12 hryvnias per dollar before the end of this year. "In order to keep the hryvnia from the fall, the National Bank will have to spend their gold and foreign exchange reserves, which by the end of the year can be reduced by another one and a half billion - to $ 27.75 billion, says the head of the Forex Club analytical center in Ukraine Nikolai Ivchenko - in parallel with this process there is a smooth devaluation of Ukrainian currency. Nevertheless, the cost of the cost of the cost. The hryvnias in the autumn period should not be expected. "