World steel production will increase by 4.6 percent in 2018

Global steel production is projected to grow 4.6 percent year-on-year to 1.79 billion tonnes in 2018. This significant increase was driven, in part, by the expected 6.3 percent gain in steel production in China.

After the closure of unapproved facilities, the Chinese authorities can now obtain a more accurate indicator of total steel production in the country for inclusion in official statistics. Consequently, production growth in China in real terms is below the projected 6.3%. Despite the statistical discrepancy, steel demand in China has been relatively smooth this year, allowing factories in the country to increase production.

Global steel production, excluding China, is projected to grow by about 3 percent in 2018. This is 4 times more than last year. Global growth in steel demand remains unchanged in 2018. However, having bottomed out in late 2015 /early 2016, the cyclical rebound in the steel market appears to be reaching its zenith. The indicators show that the economic recovery is losing momentum. In recent months, marginal cuts in GDP forecasts have been undertaken by a number of global institutions. MEPS predicts little or no growth in global steel production and consumption in 2019.