Exports of rolled metal products from the EU are limited by deals with the USA

Consultant Andreas Schneider believes that an agreement between the EU and US governments to lift Donald Trump's trade barriers to steel will not mean a significant increase in US exports. There will be no significant redirection of volumes from the internal European market, unlike some enterprises that use this to justify the recent increase in prices.

As of January 1, 3.5 million tonnes of European steel per year can be imported duty-free into the United States, which is in line with the 2015-17 average. In addition, the benefits agreed under the Trump government will be extended until the end of 2023, in terms of an estimated 1.1 million tonnes.

Despite penalties on steel imports from the EU, trade with the US has remained strong throughout the Trump administration, with exports already reaching two-thirds of the agreed 3.5 million tonnes in 2021. According to Schneider, existing business relationships and ongoing projects have been continued with an additional 25% of customs duties levied or through the successful achievement of incentives. In addition, the very favorable price level in the US has spurred the consumption of EU materials in 2021, he adds.

Based on current deliveries, the aftermarket will increase by 500,000 tonnes for long products and 600,000 tonnes for flat products. This is less than 1% of steel production in Europe, which means that the internal European market is unlikely to be affected by volumes going abroad, Schneider concludes.