The September forecast shows significant continuity with previous months, with further emergency issues related to CBAM. Imports made during 2026 will be subject to purchase certificates as of February 2027. However, the European Commission has not yet disclosed the calculation basis needed to assess effective costs.
Additional uncertainty comes from the US tariffs on steel and aluminum, which diversifies the diversionary risks, especially to the east. In this context, ahead of the new regulation that will replace the current protection measure in June 2026, Assofermet has already proposed several key points to the European Commission for consideration at the drafting stage.
July ended with reduced volumes, and prices are still at their lowest levels, while the first week. Time.
. For stainless steel products, July showed relative stability, with limited single-digit percentage movements, while in August some products, especially cold tubing, made a more modest upward push, sufficient to support earnings. The construction sector remains more fragile, with rebar, welded mesh and related products continuing to show signs of weakness.
In the distribution segment, July recorded a trend similar to that of the previous year: stable prices allowed in some categories in some categories in some categories. September opened with a cautiously improved scenario, with moderately higher volumes and small price increases in some segments, although the fragility of demand downstream remains evident.
According to Assofermet, the coming weeks will be crucial in shaping the trend for the final part of the year. The evolution of demand in key end-use sectors such as construction and automotive, together with inventory management, will be crucial in determining whether the market can consolidate the first signs of recovery or downward pressure from oversupply.
