China's annual car sales are likely to reach 40 million units in 2026-30

Cui Dongshu, general secretary of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), said that average annual car sales in China are likely to reach 40 million units during the 15th five-year plan period (2026:30). However, he also mentioned that his forecast was considered too optimistic for some market players.

MR. Cui forecast that China’s auto sales will grow at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, which will be much slower than the level recorded in the 14th Five-Year Plan period.

Compared to 2025, by 2030 the domestic retail sales of passenger vehicles will rise by 1.8 percent, while the overall exports of auto vehicles will increase by 9.0 percent.

According to Kui Dongshu, vehicle adoption in the central and western regions of China, as well as in the county and town markets, it is gradually outpacing this in Beijing and Shanghai. Meanwhile, electrification shortens the average vehicle ownership cycle, as the effective life of chips and batteries is only about ten years, which is much shorter than 18 years for traditional internal combustion engines. Even if total vehicle ownership remains unchanged, the demand for new energy will indicate a significant increase. The gradual expansion of the share abroad, especially in Southeast Asia, Africa and the EU, will also have a positive impact on China's automotive industry.