According to Japan's Ministry of Trade (METI), steel demand in Japan in the last quarter of 2025 is expected to be 20.23 million tons, up 1.2 percent from the previous quarter and down 2.4 percent from the same quarter in 2024.
Total demand for Japanese steel, including exports are expected to reach 18.47 million tons in the fourth quarter and increase. 0.4 percent of estimated fourth-quarter demand Exports are expected to total 6.20 million tons, down 0.6 percent from the third quarter and down 6.1 percent year-on-year.
Meanwhile, of total demand in the October-December period, 14.72 million tons are expected to be conventional steel. down 3.6 percent year-on-year and up one percent from the previous quarter, while 3.75 million tons of demand is expected to come from specialty steel, down three percent year-on-year and down 1.8 percent from the previous quarter's estimates.
According to the data METI, exports are expected to decline from the same period last year due to Japanese automakers' declining market share due to the rise of electric vehicles in China, the economic slowdown in Southeast Asia and Europe, and the ongoing impact of trade measures against Japan. METI argues that ongoing monitoring of the impact of China's deteriorating steel supply-demand balance on surrounding markets and US tariff policy developments is necessary.
