The American investment banking company Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has revised its forecast for iron ore prices for 2026 to $93/ton, citing macroeconomic support, tighter inventories and steady steel production in China, according to a Bloomberg report.
The upward revision means an increase of $5/ton compared to the bank's previous forecast, but remains below current iron ore futures.Tougher market conditions support short-term stability
Analysts led by Aurelia Waltham wrote that the iron ore market "has remained tougher than expected in recent months," supported by:
- reliable Chinese production of hot metals,
- stable stocks in ports and
- strengthening of the yuan.
Iron ore futures in Singapore were trading around $106.45/mt, up 15 percent from mid-June lows, following China's new measures to limit overcapacity. Since the beginning of the year, reference prices have averaged about $101/m.
China's oversupply and global surge in shipping pose risks
Despite the upward revision, Goldman Sachs maintains a bearish outlook. The bank expects iron ore prices to decline to $88/t by the fourth quarter of 2026, citing the risks of structural oversupply in the Chinese steel market, although this is higher than the previous forecast of $80/t.
Goldman warned that:
- China's net steel exports have peaked,
- domestic demand continues to weaken due to the prolonged downturn in the real estate market, and
