In our opinion, any significant reduction in production in Indonesia may contribute to an increase in global prices for thermal coal, as the country accounts for more than 40% of global exports of thermal coal (555 million tons in 2024). In the spot market, the FOB Newcastle price (6,000 kcal) remains about 10% below its fundamentally reasonable level (120/ton).
Indonesia plans to limit coal production to below 700 million tons in 2026 to stabilize global prices.
For comparison, in 2024 Indonesia produced 836 million tons of coal, which is about 9% of the global supply. The restriction for 2026 implies a reduction in production by about 5% and 16% compared to the levels of 2025 (the planned volume is about 740 million tons) and 2024, respectively.
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