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Global steelmaking capacity is growing faster than demand

Global steelmaking capacity is growing faster than demand

Industry representatives warned that steelmaking capacity is expanding faster than demand, adding pressure on exports, at the first Steel Networking Summit 2026 in Istanbul. The Turkish Steel Exporters' Association (ÇİB) is holding the conference on October 26–27.

At the opening, Turkish Trade Minister Ömer Bolat said additional US tariffs on steel, along with EU import quotas and protective measures, were making it harder for Turkish producers to access markets. Excluding Turkish suppliers from European industrial supply chains, he said, would also weaken the competitiveness of EU manufacturers. Bolat added that restrictions on trade in low-carbon steel made using scrap could hinder the green transition.

Uğur Dalbeler, chairman of ÇİB and president of the World Steel Association, said capacity additions unsupported by demand were increasing export pressure and encouraging protectionism. He called for climate policies to account for differences in producers’ access to energy, financing and technology, warning that emissions rules should not become another trade barrier.

Global capacity utilization currently stands at about 75–76%, according to World Steel Association Director General Henrik Adam. Another roughly 140 million tonnes of capacity could come online in the coming years, while demand is unlikely to grow as quickly. Adam also pointed to rising trade barriers and the localization of production.

Former association director general Edwin Basson expects global steel demand to remain around 1.7 billion tonnes in 2026 before rising in 2027. He cited geopolitical uncertainty and financial pressures as risks to the economic outlook. In his view, growing steel consumption in Southeast Asia over the next decade could offset declining demand in China.

Fuat Tosyalı, chairman of Tosyalı Holding and the Turkish Steel Producers’ Association (TÇÜD), stressed the close integration of Turkish and EU industrial supply chains under the Customs Union. Turkey, he said, should not be treated like other non-EU countries in European steel policy. Tosyalı identified protection from unfair competition, predictable trading conditions and financing for low-carbon steel production as priorities.

At a panel moderated by Hakan Güldağ, participants also discussed market fragmentation, rising trade restrictions and energy costs. They said protectionism could prompt further capacity expansion, while decarbonization would require substantial investment and new technologies. The panel also addressed uncertainty over emissions verification under the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and calls for Turkey to adopt steel import measures similar to those of the EU.

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