Beijing is considering the possibility of providing subsidies for mortgages (for the first time throughout the country), increasing tax deductions for mortgages and reducing transaction costs.
Although the timing and exact list of measures to be implemented have not yet been determined, this step could support construction activity in China, the main consumer of metal (a 20% decrease in annual terms for 10 months of 2025) and support world steel prices in 2026, especially if it is combined with new supply-side reforms.
Recall that at the end of October a plenary meeting was held in China on the strategic plan for the development of industries for 2026-2030 (the plan will be published in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis in the global steel market, we believe Beijing may introduce additional stringent supply controls similar to the 2016-2017 reform (which removed more than 100 million tons of steel production capacity).
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