According to the Aluminum Institute (IAI), in October, global primary aluminum production increased by 0.6% YoY after an increase, according to updated estimates.

By 1.2% YoY in September. In particular, in China, which accounts for 60% of the global aluminum supply, its production increased by 0.9% YoY in October. Overall, the strong dynamics of consumption in Asia (including for the needs of the electricity grid infrastructure), as well as the ongoing cycle of monetary policy easing in the EU, the USA and China, we believe, will provide additional support to aluminum prices, which, according to our forecasts, will average $3,000 in 2026./T. We also note the limited potential for aluminum production growth in China, whose government has set a production limit of 45 million tons per year. According to the IAI, China produced 43.4 million tons of aluminum in 2024, and 44.2 million tons in annual terms in 10m25