According to the Japanese Ministry of Commerce (METI), crude steel demand in Japan is expected to reach 20.05 million tons in the first quarter of 2026, down 0.8 percent from the previous quarter and down 1.7 percent from the same quarter of 2025.
The latest METI report predicts that Japan's steel demand, including exports, will reach 18.27 million tons between January and March 2026. This figure represents a decrease of 1.6 percent year-on-year, remaining broadly unchanged from the previous quarterly forecast with a slight upward revision of 0.1 percent.
Meanwhile, of the total demand in the first quarter, 14.54 million tons are expected to come from ordinary steel, down 1.5 percent year-on-year and down 1.2 percent from the previous quarter, while 3.73 million tons of demand will come from specialty steel, down 1.8 percent from the previous quarter. year-on-year and 5.4 percent more than in the previous quarter.
The construction sector remains under pressure
According to the report, the demand for steel in the civil engineering segment is expected to decrease slightly year-on-year, despite the fact that public works budgets will remain at the level of last year. The decrease is explained by higher material and labor costs. In the broader construction sector, demand is also projected to decline year-on-year due to project delays related to cost pressures, ongoing labor shortages, and weakening sentiment towards homeownership.
