BMI raises its forecast for coking coal prices in 2026 to $190 per ton amid strong import demand in India and China

BMI's country risk and industry research division, Fitch Solutions, raised its coking coal price forecast for 2026 to $190 per tonne from a previous estimate of $180 per tonne, citing expectations of sustained import demand from India and China, according to media reports.

Lower production in China supports shipping prices

While BMI maintains a cautious stance on Chinese steel in this sector, where crude steel production is forecast to fall by four percent to 935 million tons in 2026, a much sharper reduction in domestic coking coal supplies is expected.

China's coking coal production is projected to decline by eight percent to 454 million tons in 2026, and this drop is expected to provide underlying support to shipping prices. However, BMI cautioned that the growth potential may be limited by strong exports from land-based suppliers such as Mongolia and Russia.

India stimulates import growth amid domestic deficit

In India, BMI noted steady growth in steel production along with a weakening of domestic coking coal supplies. According to the World Steel Manufacturers Association, crude steel production in India increased by 10 percent year-on-year to 136 million tons between January and October 2025.

During the same period, coking coal production in India fell by 10 percent to 26.8 million tons, while production at the Bharat Coking Coal plant decreased by 17 percent to 17.6 million tons. mt.

<To compensate for this gap, India has dramatically increased imports. BMI estimates that imports of coking coal increased by 8.6 percent year-on-year to 50 million tons between January and October 2025.

The long-term outlook has not changed despite the short-term rating upgrade

Despite the upward revision for 2026, BMI has left its long-term price assumptions unchanged, forecasting average coking coal prices at US$ 184 per tonne. in 2028 and 180 dollars per ton in 2029.

These forecasts reflect expectations that India's rapidly expanding steelmaking capacity will structurally boost import demand. BMI expects India to overtake China in the period 2025-2034 and become the world's largest importer of coking coal.