During the macroeconomic panel at the “EUROMETAL Southern Europe Meeting 2026” - held yesterday, February 26, in Milan - Emilio Rossi (EconPartners & Oxford Economics) outlined the global backdrop, which is still heavily shaped by the post-Covid political cycle and is now moving towards normalization. According to Rossi, the shift from "expansionary" monetary and fiscal measures to more "orthodox" policies is bringing structural constraints back to the fore in advanced economies, including the EU.
Rossi noted that years after the public health emergency, the consequences of these policies are still visible: very low interest rates, prolonged fiscal support and increased demand have temporarily changed fundamentals, but a return to normal policy settings is once again exposing long-term restrictions. He pointed to factors typically associated with "long-term stagnation" such as demographics, weak productivity growth and excess saving, which are now exacerbated by new pressures including protectionism, climate change, accelerating technology development, defense spending, a slowing China and rising global debt.
World GDP growth remains close to pre-Covid levels in the near term (around 3%), but forecasts point to gradual slowing over the next decade, falling to 2.2-2.5%. This, he stressed, implies a less favorable environment for demand growth in all industrial sectors, including the steel industry.
When describing the baseline forecast
