According to Fitch, the sustainability of Turkish banks will be closely linked to how politicians respond to the evolving situation. The Agency noted that economic policy measures will play a crucial role in limiting potential negative impacts on financial stability and credit conditions. Noting that changes in macroeconomic conditions may affect the operating environment for banks, Fitch said potential risks include tighter financial conditions, increased financing costs and pressure on asset quality.
GDP prospects remain stable under the baseline scenario
The report indicates that the Iranian conflict is exacerbating existing macroeconomic problems, including inflation and external financing needs, which remain key factors for Turkey's economic prospects.
Fitch's baseline scenario assumes that the conflict will be temporary and contained, while the impact on the Turkish economy is expected to remain manageable. In its broader sovereign assessment, Fitch forecasts Turkey's GDP growth to be around 3.5 percent in 2026 and 4.2 percent in 2027. However, the agency pointed out that a prolonged period of geopolitical tensions could dampen growth due to external shocks.
Turkey is considered relatively susceptible to energy price shocks, which means that a steady rise in oil prices could increase the current account deficit, increase inflationary pressures, and put pressure on the exchange rate.
Meanwhile, Mustafa Gultepe, chairman of the Turkish Exporters' Assembly, said that Turkish exports to the Persian Gulf countries had decreased by 40 percent due to the war.
