The future of the war in Iran is squeezing the cost of shipping steel and bunker fuel

The war in Iran has increased transportation costs, adding unexpected upward pressure to the cost of steel, both raw and finished. Marine bunker fuel at major ports has increased by 60-75 percent since the end of February, scrap metal exports from the U.

S. East Coast to Turkey have increased by about 50 percent, and U.

S. retail diesel fuel has increased by almost 50 percent over the same period, leading to higher freight costs at every stage of the steel supply chain.

The marine fuel shock resulting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is real and quantifiable. President Trump took office on January 20, 2025, when Brent prices were at $81.68 per barrel, and in 2025, there was a gradual decline to a minimum on December 16, 2025, to $59.93. This equated to a decrease of almost 27 percent in the price of Brent crude oil over the year, which led to lower bunker fuel costs and freight costs. However, since the start of the war in late February 2026, prices have jumped from $71.32 to $138.21 at the peak on April 7, 2026, representing a 93 percent increase in less than 45 days. And these consequences directly affect shipping costs and steel prices.

While shippers absorb part of the fuel charges themselves and save money by slowing down the ship's travel time, the cost of freight has nevertheless increased significantly by about 50 percent. Freight traffic from the East Coast of the United States to Turkey has increased from the pre-war low of $30/ton to more than $46-48/ton currently. And this pattern follows globally. Except for Los Angeles, which