The Global Steel Industry Overcapacity Forum (GFSEC) announced that it has agreed on a new comprehensive framework for joint action aimed at addressing the escalating global overcapacity crisis in the steel industry, following a ministerial-level meeting held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on September 30, under the chairmanship of the United States.
Ministers and senior representatives of the GFSEC member countries stated that global steel overcapacity continues to increase, despite trade remedies and other measures taken by member countries individually. They agreed that further collective action is needed to create a more competitive environment for domestic steel mills. производств.
Under the new structure, the GFSEC members intend to take specific measures within their national legal systems, taking into account national circumstances and international obligations. The forum will evaluate the measures taken and report on the progress made at its next ministerial meeting.
Ministers identified non-market policies and practices in some non-GFSEC countries as a constant driving force behind the global steel capacity glut. The GFSEC and its coordinator were tasked with collecting and sharing information on policies and practices that are considered to disrupt competition and trade, as well as identifying possible measures to address them and their underlying causes.
Global excess steel production capacity is projected to reach 745 million tons. тонн
According to the ministers' statement, global excess steel production capacity is projected to increase from 601 million tons in 2024 to 745 million tons in 2028, reaching the highest level in the last ten years. Global steel demand is expected to increase by only 34 million tons in 2026-2028, while steelmaking capacity may increase by more than 139 million tons.
They highlighted the role of subsidies and other support measures in some non-GFSEC countries. According to the OECD data provided in the statement, the typical Chinese steel producer receives grants, tax breaks and financing at below-market prices, which is about 15 times the support received by a typical steel company in other countries, depending on the size of assets, while the level of subsidization of steel production in China has since been almost doubled. 2019. In addition, Chinese steelmakers are increasing their steel production capacity abroad by about 70 million tons, especially in Southeast Asia and Africa, while state-owned enterprises account for 70% of Chinese cross-border steel investments.
China's steel exports reached a record 131 million tons in 2012. 2025
GFSEC attributes excess production capacity and stagnating domestic demand in China to the growth of exports. Chinese steel exports have reached a record high. In 2025, a record 131 million tons of steel were produced, which is 153% more than in 2020 and exceeded the total steel production in the EU this year. year.
It was stated at the forum that excess global production capacity is putting downward pressure on steel prices, capacity utilization and profitability. The EBITDA of the global steel industry in 2024 remained below 10% of sales, which, according to GFSEC, is not enough to support investments in innovation, increased resource efficiency and the development of the best available technologies.
The risks of redirecting trade and its обхода
At the same time, ministers warned that the increasing use of trade measures could redirect steel supplies to markets with weaker trade enforcement mechanisms.. GFSEC also drew attention to the growing risks of circumventing sanctions and suspicious changes in trade flows. The GFSEC members imposed 68 anti-dumping and countervailing duties. measures against China have been taken since 2016. In 28 of these cases, Chinese exports of related goods to GFSEC countries decreased significantly, while exports to non-GFSEC countries increased, followed by an increase in exports of the same goods from these countries to GFSEC member countries.
Against this background, GFSEC members called for stronger trade enforcement tools, effective trade measures, increased cooperation in identifying suspicious trade patterns, measures against circumvention of sanctions, and closer policy coordination between participating countries.
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