Turkish Steel Exports Decline

According to the chairman of the Turkish Steel Exporters Association (CIB), Adnan Aslan, in 2019, steel exports from Turkey could be only 15-16 million tons, which is much less than their figure in 2018. Overseas shipments will be hampered by continued protectionism around the world and a possible return of China to "... aggressive" export policies.

Turkish steel exports to the US in 2018 are down 15.1% yoy to 1.9 million tonnes as a result of tariffs, while shipments to the Middle East are down 6% to 3.8 million tonnes ... This was offset by increased exports to other regions. Shipments to Asia rose 34.8% to 1.7 million tonnes, with products shipped to the Philippines and Sri Lanka for the first time. Total exports rose 20.8% in 2018 to 21.4 million tonnes, up 36.1% in value terms to $ 15.6 billion.

In 2019, Turkish exporters will target Southeast Asia, West Africa and Latin America by organizing trade delegations to countries that do not purchase the desired tonnage of Turkish steel, Aslan says.

Turkish steel can be levied at a 50% tariff in the US, but this tax can be waived at any time, Aslan explains. US consumers also fall prey to the tariff, as domestic prices have therefore risen 50% and American factories are making historic profits, he adds.

There is also a big question mark on China. The Asian giant exported less steel in 2018 due to improved domestic demand, but its economic growth forecasts are not promising and these exports may return. “If the domestic market shrinks and they decide to export, it will create problems for the whole world,” Aslan says in a note that Callanish sees. "More than 100 million tons of exports will be dangerous."

Turkish exporters have turned to East Asia, especially Singapore and Hong Kong, to offset the decline in U.S. sales last year, but this could be difficult to replicate in 2019 if shipments from China rise.