ASEAN steel production is skyrocketing

Southeast Asia is one of the fastest growing steel regions in the world, Duferco Asia Managing Director Subhendu Bose said this week at the Asia Steel Markets conference in Ho Chi Minh City.

Steel production in the ASEAN region has grown by 60% or more than 11 million tonnes per year over the past three years, to 31 million tonnes in 2018. When several major projects are launched, regional steel production could reach 50 million tonnes over the next year or two. Bose has identified Vietnam and Indonesia, with respective additional capacity of 7.5 Mtpa and 3.5 Mtpa, as top growth areas.

Most of the additional production is focused on long products, in particular on rebar with 18-20 million tonnes /year, and by 2020/21 the additional capacity will increase the production of rebar in the region to a level above 23 million tonnes /year. Hot-rolled steel is the fastest growing product in the region, with a capacity exceeding 9 million tonnes in 2018 due to new production in Vietnam, and by 2020-21, the increase in capacity will increase the region's HRC production to over 13 million tonnes per year.

Indonesia and Vietnam are driving export growth. Exports from Indonesia increased from 1.6 million tons in 2016 to 3.8 million tons in 2018, and for Vietnam - from 3.2 million tons to 6.5 million tons.

Bose said China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will remain the region's main source of flat products, at least in the medium term. “However, these countries will need to compete with new capacity in Vietnam, Indonesia and possibly other countries in the region,” he said. Since imports from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan tend to target value-added sectors, Chinese flat products may face more competition with new capacity from ASEAN, he added.