This is important because the company's dividend depends on the FCF. In the most optimistic scenario, EBITDA for 2025 will amount to 200 billion rubles (Q1 40 billion rubles), income tax will then be 40 billion rubles (tax rate 25%), working capital will remain unchanged. We consider FCF: 200 (EBITDA) - 170 (Capex) - 40 (income tax) - 0 (working capital) - 10 billion rubles, yes, the company can add a couple of percent of dividends (less than 5%) by increasing the debt burden (now zero net debt), but it is unlikely that dividend lovers we will be pleased with this scenario
In 2026, a similar picture is being drawn for FCF! But on the other hand, there will be a great opportunity to set long positions after the dividend sectarians run away, so that they can sell shares again at 1.5k
