European steel market Forecast – the report for the 3rd quarter of 2025 has just been published, in which the European steel market is experiencing a fall into the abyss - a "protracted autumn". The main conclusions

The EU steel market remains tense and clouded by uncertainty. The lack of progress in the EU-US trade negotiations due to Trump's tariffs, continued weak demand and growing global overcapacity confirm another recession in 2025: projected steel consumption is currently -0.2% (revised from -0.9%), and output in steel-using sectors is -0.7% (revised from -0.5%). Imports still occupy a historically high market share (25%).

The weakness of the manufacturing industry has a serious impact: most sectors are expected to continue to suffer in 2025, especially the automotive industry (-4.2%), while only minor positive results are observed in construction (0.4%). Shipments to the domestic market in Q1 2025 increased (1.4%) after a negative 2024 figure (-2.8%), but consumption volumes remain well below pre-pandemic levels.

The next "spring&recovery of demand in the steel sector may not occur until 2026 at the earliest. Forecasts point to a recovery in both visible steel consumption (3.4%) and the steel sector (1.8%) next year, but this depends on easing trade tensions and an improvement in the global economy.