This does not apply to me, since from the very start of the channel I wrote a lot about gold, and about the crypt as attractive classes of assets for long -term investors. For example, according to the word “gold”, the search for the channel has been issued 235 posts since 2017. I am sure that there will be more of them, but now this is not about that.
such a dynamics of gold cannot but raise questions on the topic of how “it is overheated” and whether it is time to start at least adjusted. To answer this question, I propose to look at the historical schedule of this asset. Since we are talking about the global trend, the schedule is appropriate-over 40 years and with a 4-year-old average one, since the 4-year cycle allows you to capture different phases of the market.
at the moment, the gap of gold prices from 4-year-old average is a little more than 50%. This is a lot, but during periods of similar trends similar in terms of trend strength, this gap reached 60% in 2008 and 2011. Only after this came a protracted period for several months, correction.
This fact does not mean that gold "should" increase from the current levels by another 10%before starting the correction. But he allows everyone to impress how “overheated” is gold here and now. And then it already depends on your own subjective perception, what to do with the position, if it is, sell or hold. At least now we know that gold may well continue, despite the fact of overwhelming.
But in any case, even if the correction scenario is implemented, and, for example, for several months or only 2026 there will be no gold, I would remain a long -term “bull” in this asset. There are too many analogies since the mid-1970s, and what happened then with the activists of inflation against the background of a slowdown in economic growth, everyone can study on their own. And as a bonus, read more about silver and brothers Hunt.
