During his presentation at the Seetorbis 2025 Fall Conference conference and the 93rd Irepas meeting, Munich took place on September 28-30, Frank Pofen, Professor Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena, indicated deep changes and uncertainty that form the world markets of steel contractions. AFTER Decades of Expansion, The Industry Is Entering AW Phase of Stagnating Crude Steel Output, Shifting Regional Balances, and Persistent Policy Risks.
Global Crude Steel Production Has Stabilized At Around 1.9 Billion MT SincE 2019, Slipping from 1.904 Billion MT in 1.885 Billion MT In 2024, With China Still Accounting For MORE THE HALF of the TOTAL AT 1.005 billion MT. There are acute divergences behind these figures, however, while India increased the booty by 47 percent from 2017 to 2024, the EU, Japan and South Korea saw steep reductions, and the production in the United States and Turkey stagnated.
. 457 million tons in 2024. India (+21.5%), Türkiye (+7.5%) and the EU (+1.9%) registered growth, most other regions recorded a decrease. Despite these shifts, world trade volumes are stable by 90 million tons per year, although prices have remained weak since 2022 due to sluggish demand in mature markets.
for macroeconomic prospects, Professor Potenth noted that GDP global growth will slow down 3.3 percent to 3.0-3.1 from 3.0-3.1 in 2026 in 2026 in 2026 in 2026 interest, and with strong and 3.0-3.1-3.1-3.1-3.1-3.1-3.1-3.1-3.1-3.1-3.1-3.1-3.1-3.1-3.1-3.1-3.1-3.1-3.1-3.1-3.1-3, impulse in India, in the Middle East and Turkey. The construction sector, the main source of scrap, remains under pressure, especially in China, where the activity was established by more than 10 percent in 2025. The recovery is predicted for 2026, led by infrastructure, with positive extraneous benefits in Europe and the Middle East.
looks further, after after the afternoon compared with the post-selection it will only grow within the framework in Europe. China, on the contrary, is expected to accelerate scrap generation when its steel reserve ripens. OECD forecasts suggest that by 2030, global performance of raw steel can return to 2 billion tons. This will increasingly concentrate the demand for scrap in the South and Southeast Asia and the Middle East, while global expansion of the throughput of the electric arc furnace (EAF) will increase demand, but also enhances competition with DRI/HBI.
. The Polita Potent warned that protectionist measures remain key risks. Bans of export and restrictions historically reduced trading flows by 80-95 percent, and current debate in the EU, Great Britain and the USA emphasize the fragility of current agreements. “Skirm always finds its way to the markets,” he said, noting that although partial restrictions redirect streams, strict and comprehensive barriers can cause sharp prices and volumetric effects.
Potion came to the conclusion that the coming years will form in the field of geographical shift of the requirements for compositions in
