In addition, the increase will support high long-term demand associated with the transition to clean energy and increased investment in this area, the bank said in a statement.
UBS raised its copper price forecast for the end of the first quarter of 2026 by $750 to $11.5 thousand per ton. Expectations for June and September were immediately raised by $1,000 to $12,000 and $12,500 per ton, respectively. The experts also set the target level for December next year at $13,000 per ton.
Analysts now believe that the shortage of copper in the global market this year will be about 230,000 tons against the previously expected 53,000 tons, and in 2026 - 407,000 tons against 87,000 tons. In their opinion, the reduction of stocks and the continuing supply risks will keep the economy in a tense state.
Mine disruptions this year, including production problems at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, slower production recovery in Chile, and repeated protests in Peru, highlight structural supply constraints that are likely to persist through 2026, the report said. bank.
Freeport-McMoRan said it plans to resume production at its Grasberg copper and gold mine by July after a fatal accident halted operations two months ago.
UBS lowered its forecast for refined copper production growth to 1.2% in 2025 and 2.2% next year, citing deteriorating ore quality and operational issues. Analysts expect global metal demand to increase by 2.8% both this year and next due to the development of renewable energy sources, electric vehicles, investments in power grids and data centers.
The bank's experts believe that any price reduction will be short-lived and recommend maintaining long positions in copper.
Earlier, the Club of Experts Information and Analytical Center released a video dedicated to global copper production and leading producing countries - https://youtube.com/shorts/_h8iU50z8C0?si=a-XkgGEfeUxseQNa
