Tadashi Imai, chairman of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF) and president of Nippon Steel, said the Japanese steel industry is facing new pressure from US tariff policies that are "blocking steel trade flows" and having a "significant" impact on Japan's heavy steel export sector, according to local media reports. Imai warned that Japan's steel industry situation in the next fiscal year (FY 2026-27, starting April 1, 2026) is expected to remain broadly unchanged from the current period, and that steel demand will take longer to recover.
Demand forecast remains subdued
Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) also said a cautious outlook for January-March 2026, citing labor shortages and rising material costs that continue to hold back construction activity while most manufacturing sectors have yet to show a meaningful recovery. METI forecast total steel demand for the quarter to be 18.6 million tonnes, down 1.6 percent year-on-year, and steel production to be 20.05 million tonnes.
Output to be near multi-decade low
METI expects steel production in the current fiscal year ending March 31, 2026 to fall by about 2.6 million tonnes compared to the previous financial year, marking a 52-year low. Meanwhile, JISF noted that next fiscal year's output could be broadly similar to the current year
's level.
