Despite a marked decline in Chinese steel production from 2025 to 960 million tons, below one billion tons for the first time since 2019, supply-side pressures remain significant due to export growth to a record 119 million tons.
Rising geopolitical tensions continue to increase uncertainty for both factories and traders. This situation contributes to a wait-and-see approach by buyers on the demand side, while input costs, especially for scrap, remain more supported than finished steel products due to seasonal supply constraints.
Demand remains weak
Demand in the EU remains weak due to seasonal factors, uncertainty about quotas and the Mechanism for adjusting Carbon limits, preventing buyers from making larger commitments. Import volumes have slowed down, and only limited quotas have been fully utilized since January 1, reflecting the concerns of importers and traders.
In the US, expectations for commercial construction in 2026 have weakened, while residential construction also remains under pressure amid high inventories and interest rates
