India's steel exports (including stainless steel) rose 36 percent year-on-year to 7.65 million tonnes in the first 10 months of the fiscal year (April 2025-January 2026), according to preliminary data from BigMint. Since August 2025, steel exports to India have exceeded 700,000 tons every month, reaching even more than 1 million tons in December, mainly due to front loading of EU supplies.
10MFY '26 Key Trends
EU Demand Peaks for CBAM Confusion, Competitive proposals:The start of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) final period from January 2026, as well as stricter safeguards in 2026, forced importers into the EU to stock up on cheaper imported material.
First, there was significant uncertainty about additional carbon costs, and buyers accelerated purchases to avoid potential complications.
Secondly, expectations of reduced import supply in the future have made EU factories optimistic about higher prices. At the same time, fearing a sharp drop in demand, Indian exporters have increased supplies while cutting prices to make offers more attractive.
Domestic EU HRP prices were reported to be around €630/t ($738/t) in December, down from €560/t ($655/t) in August. Conversely, Indian offers of $570/mt CFR Antwerp (monthly average) fell 7 percent in December from $604/mt in August, according to BigMint estimates. Wide price gap ultimately boosted India's exports
