The change in the supply of nickel in 2014 led to high volatility in its price, which, according to analysts, will continue in 2015. The main factors for the formation of prices for base metals this year will be expectations of an increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve and fears about a slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy.
Nickel prices reached an annual high of $ 21,200 per tonne after the ban on exports from Indonesia and fell nearly 22 percent from their peak, to close at $ 14,935 per tonne in 2014. The production suspension at the Koniambo mine in New Caledonia will support nickel prices in 2015.
Nickel prices are likely to average $ 19,000 per tonne in 2015, almost 13 percent higher than the average price of $ 16,867 per tonne in 2014, according to the latest forecast provided by London-based consulting firm Natixis Commodity Markets. Natixis believes prices can be adequately supported by supply problems. However, the reduction in problems will lead to a drop in nickel prices in 2016, with an average price forecast in 2016 of $ 17,375 per tonne.
In addition, Natixis is forecasting an average price of $ 6,335 per tonne for copper, $ 2,071 per tonne for aluminum, $ 2,523 per tonne for zinc and $ 2,145 per tonne for lead in 2015.
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