According to BP's forecast, global coal consumption will peak in the second half of the 2020s, after which a recession will begin.
Currently, coal accounts for about 55% of China's energy mix and more than 70% of India's energy mix. At the same time, China produces almost 5 billion tons of coal, while imports account for less than 5% of total consumption.
As for India, there has historically been a shortage of its own coal in this market. At the same time, the country demonstrates ambitious plans to increase steel production to 300 million tons over the medium term, which ensures significant demand for coking coal. The import of coking coal to India in fiscal year 2024 reached a ten-year high and amounted to 58 million tons
The Russian coal industry is currently undergoing a large-scale restructuring of export flows after the loss of the European market, which accounted for almost half of foreign sales until 2022. Besides India, China and the countries of Southeast Asia became the main supply route. Before the sanctions were imposed, Europe accounted for approximately 95-105 million tons of Russian coal per year, or about 45-50% of total exports. At that time, the eastern direction provided only 70-75 million tons, that is, it occupied less than a third of external supplies. After 2022, the volume of exports to the East has almost doubled, to 150-160 million tons in 2024.
