It just so happens that I have been tracking this picture since 2012, and the pdf below contains EY risk maps for 2012, 2020, 2024, and 2025. It is especially interesting to compare the years 2012 and 2026 (on the 2026 scale):
1. Previously, they talked pointedly about the lack of labor and access to infrastructure. Now the complexity of operation has come to the fore. That is, the old risks have not become less. On the contrary, the risk has become more complex and significant.
2. The cost increase has also worsened, but productivity is not growing.
3. Capital is still relevant.
4. Resources and reserves didn't exist before, although it's strange, we were already talking about the need to reproduce them in those years.
5. The social license remains.
6. The labor force remained.
7. Geopolitics — and before, like, it wasn't.
8. Digitalization and innovation did not exist. Well, it's still 2012, we were young and used mechanized labor.
9. Sustainable development — there were elements, now ESG is integrated.
10. Changing business models have not been a trend in recent years. Although Severstal had it.
I look at these pictures and think: but the main risks have not changed in 13 years. Especially those that we seem to be able to influence.
So does this mean, comrades, that all risk management is formal, and we have not been able to build truly anti-fragile MMCs? Does this mean that we will not be able to minimize the main risks in the future? And if this is the case — and the facts confirm it — what real actions should we take in order to turn threats into opportunities and succeed?
Note: I cannot guarantee the correctness of the links in 2012 and 2020.
