China's new commercial property sales could fall 6.2 percent year on year in 2026, with the rate of decline slowing from the decline recorded in 2025, the CIA, China's largest independent real estate research organization, has announced. Meanwhile, overall real estate investment in China is expected to decline 11 percent year-on-year in 2026.
Huang Yu, vice president of the CIA, predicted that over the next five years, total demand for urban housing nationwide will reach approximately 4.98 billion square meters. Assuming a conversion rate of 70-80 percent, the annual sales area of newly built commercial housing could reach an average of 700-800 million square meters over the next five years.
As market inventories gradually decline and social expectations recover, the real estate industry is expected to emerge from the adjustment phase in the mid-to-late 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026:30).
