According to a report by Reuters, analysts have slightly increased their forecasts for carbon quota prices in the European Union over the next two years, warning that price volatility is likely to persist until 2026, and carbon markets will remain closely linked to the movement of European gas prices.
According to a survey of 10 analysts, the average value of EU surcharges (EUA) is currently expected to be €92.65/mt in 2026 and €107.29/mt in 2027. These figures represent a slight upward revision compared to the October forecasts of € 91.11/mt for 2026 and €106.94/mt for 2027. For 2028, the average forecast is €110.90/mt, broadly unchanged from previous estimates.
Volatile start to 2026 amid energy market pressure
The EU carbon market has experienced a volatile start until 2026. The EUA benchmark prices are currently trading around €84/mt, having reached an intraday high of €93.80/mt on January 15, the highest level recorded in almost two and a half years.
In the near term, analysts expect EUA prices to continue to monitor developments in the European gas markets. European benchmark gas prices have increased by about 40 percent since the beginning of the year, driven by low storage levels and supply disruptions related to cold weather in the United States, affecting LNG production and exports.
Correlation of gas prices to dominate short-term carbon pricingMarket participants generally agree that EUA price movements will remain significant throughout 2026.
