Stable instability

It’s not a secret that Ukraine is permanently in a state of economic nervousness. The reason for instability is high rates for bank loans, which are not available to most Ukrainians. The main reasons for this condition are well known:

high inflation, which involves adequate compensation (depreciation) of losses of the value of financial assets over time;

The risk of loans is too much - the probability of their return to banks and timely payment of interest remains low;

a large shortage of market monetary resources due to their measured state borrowings and excesses in the priority provision of emission loans to state institutions;

The fragmentation of individual cash markets, the lack of self -regulation between them, as well as the unequality of various banks admitted or forced to work in markets that differ in interest rates, the availability of resources and creditors.

Unfortunately, a decrease in market interest rates is not a target task of the current government. Therefore, an improvement in the situation with lending to the national economy does not have to be expected.

Panic in monetary markets also occurs with uncontrolled growth or with an avalanche -like fall of the National Monetary Monetary Course. In Ukraine, such breakdowns arise much more often and with incomparably large amplitudes than in other countries.

Thus, the main causes of avalanche -shaped hryvnia devaluation that periodically happen in our economy are:

permanent foreign trade deficit, which requires additional currency investments
to pay for imports;

the high cost and limited size of international lending to the Ukrainian economy due to financial closedness and isolation of the latter;

lished -size direct foreign investments, which are the cause of adverse conditions for business in our country;

The lack of own foreign currency reserves, especially in banks and the government.

All these components only accelerate the next sharp fall in the currency course of hryvnia, which cannot be avoided. Only a miracle can delay such a course of events from 2012 to 2013.