The bank sharply raised its price forecasts, citing the contradiction between a reduction in global supply and an increase in demand as a result of the transition to "green" energy.
Trajectory: reaching new highs
UBS's updated forecasts paint an optimistic picture for next year. The bank raised its forecast for March 2026 by 750 to 11,500 and raised its targets for June and September 2026 by 1,000 each.
As shown in the forecast above, this upward momentum is fueled by long-term demand due to electrification. UBS expects global copper demand to grow by 2.8% per year through 2026, driven by:
Electric vehicles (EVs), Investments in the electric grid, the rapidly developing data center sector
Growing scarcity: where does the supply come from?
The bank has sharply raised its forecasts for the market deficit. The reduction in inventories and ongoing supply risks are expected to keep the market environment extremely tense.
Forecast of copper deficiency (UBS)
What is the reason for this shortage? As a key factor, UBS points to "constant interruptions in the work of the mines." Specific problems include:
Indonesia: Production shutdown at the Freeport-McMoRan Grasberg mine after a fatal incident.
Chile: The recovery of production is slower than expected.
Peru: Recurring protests affecting operations.
In this regard, UBS lowered its forecasts for the growth of refined copper production to just 1.2% for 2025.
