The U.
S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a decline in metallurgical coal exports to the United States in 2025, as increased domestic coal consumption driven by the energy sector reduces export availability. While exports are expected to weaken next year, the agency expects a partial recovery in 2026, supported by renewed production and global supply cuts.
According to the EIA, total coal consumption in the United States is projected to reach 448 million short tons in 2025, up nine percent from 2024. This growth is overwhelmingly driven by the electricity sector, which is expected to account for about 90 percent of total coal consumption.
Coal consumption in electricity generation is projected to increase by 11 percent in 2025. The EIA attributes this growth primarily to a more than 40 percent year-on-year increase in natural gas prices along with higher overall electricity demand. As coal becomes more competitive compared to gas, utilities are expected to increase coal production.
Metallurgical coal exports are projected to fall in 2025
As domestic coal consumption increases, total U.
S. coal exports are expected to decline. Metallurgical coal exports are projected to fall by 11 percent in 2025, reducing their share of total coal utilization from 21 percent in 2024 to 18 percent in 2025.
The projected decline reflects weak global coal prices driven by oversupply and subdued international demand, which continues to put pressure on exports.
