Brazil's steel production is expected to fall 2.2 percent in 2025 from 2024, reaching 33.1 million tons, as record levels of steel imports continue to put pressure on domestic producers, according to the Brazilian steel institute IABr.
IABr said rolled steel imports are forecast to rise 20.5 percent in 2025 to 5.7 million tons, which is the highest volume in 15 years. According to the institute, these import flows are already having a tangible impact on the domestic steel sector, leading to the loss of 5,000 jobs and a reduction in planned investment of 2.5 billion reais ($452 million).
According to IABr forecasts, domestic steel sales are expected to fall 0.5 percent in 2025 to 21.2 million tons. In contrast, apparent consumption is forecast to increase 2.4 percent to 26.7 million tonnes, driven mainly by higher imports. At the same time, exports are forecast to grow by 6.9 percent to reach 10.2 million tons.
Increasing import penetration, insufficient trade protection measures
According to IABr, current steel imports are 168 percent higher than the average annual volume recorded between 2000 and 2019, when imports averaged 2.2 million tons. This surge increased the share of imports in domestic consumption to 21 percent, compared with the historical average of 9.7 percent.
Commenting on the situation, Marco Polo de Mello Lopes, executive president of IABr, said that current levels
